Nice – Strasbourg

Ligue 1, France · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · full time 2-1 (HT 1-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.72	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.16	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.12	−2.0%
Betfair (net)	2.14	−1.1%
bet365	2.05	−5.2%

€1124 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.69	3.60	3.33	3.25
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.85	3.85	3.66	3.70
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.72	2.16	2.14	2.05
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.82	1.63	1.61	1.53
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.22	2.59	2.46	2.32
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.06	2.53	2.48	2.32
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.49	1.66	1.59	1.53
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.63	2.47	2.33	2.20
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.61	1.68	1.65	1.53
Both teams to score · No	2.43	2.86	2.62	2.45
Both teams to score · Yes	1.70	1.54	1.53	1.46

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.