Mansfield – Oxford Utd

League One, England · 2026-10-15 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · full time 1-1 (HT 0-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.52	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.06	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.94	−3.9%
Betfair (net)	2.95	−3.7%
bet365	2.57	−16.0%

€655 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.52	3.06	2.95	2.57
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.08	3.81	3.56	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.79	2.44	2.35	2.35
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.77	1.85	1.85	1.72
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.30	2.17	2.03	2.02
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.93	3.18	3.06	2.75
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.52	1.46	1.42	1.37
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.05	2.89	2.65	2.50
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.49	1.53	1.51	1.47
Both teams to score · No	2.46	2.40	2.25	2.20
Both teams to score · Yes	1.68	1.72	1.68	1.58

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.