Lecce – Bologna

Serie A, Italy · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · full time 1-2 (HT 0-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	4.51	ref
Pinnacle fair	4.05	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.91	−3.6%
Betfair (net)	3.85	−5.0%
bet365	3.75	−7.5%

€4743 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.02	2.23	2.16	2.05
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.54	3.29	3.09	3.20
Full time 1X2 · Home	4.51	4.05	3.85	3.75
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.74	2.38	2.27	2.15
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.57	1.72	1.69	1.62
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	4.27	3.69	3.38	3.25
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.30	1.37	1.37	1.30
Both teams to score · No	1.70	2.00	1.94	1.86
Both teams to score · Yes	2.44	2.00	1.93	1.86

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.