Lazio – Monza

Serie A, Italy · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · full time 3-1 (HT 2-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	6.03	ref
Pinnacle fair	5.54	ruler
Pinnacle offered	5.22	−5.7%
Betfair (net)	5.46	−1.3%
bet365	5.25	−5.2%

€14 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	6.03	5.54	5.46	5.25
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.46	4.11	3.85	3.90
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.64	1.74	1.70	1.62
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.98	1.87	1.80	1.68
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.02	2.15	2.10	2.05
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.52	3.21	3.01	2.70
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.40	1.45	1.43	1.41
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.19	2.91	2.71	2.45
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.46	1.52	1.50	1.46
Both teams to score · No	1.93	2.18	2.12	1.96
Both teams to score · Yes	2.08	1.85	1.77	1.71

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.