Lillestrom – Molde

Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 17:15 UTC · full time 2-2 (HT 1-2) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.99	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.42	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.37	−2.2%
Betfair (net)	2.33	−3.8%
bet365	2.35	−3.0%

€31 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.36	2.85	2.79	2.57
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.14	4.22	3.94	3.75
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.99	2.42	2.33	2.35
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.70	1.46	1.42	1.33
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.43	3.19	3.06	3.10
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.75	2.13	2.06	1.86
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.57	1.89	1.84	1.76
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.40	2.16	2.04	2.01
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.72	1.86	1.81	1.71
Both teams to score · No	2.57	3.39	3.09	3.00
Both teams to score · Yes	1.64	1.42	1.41	1.33

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.