Fredrikstad – Tromso

Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 12:30 UTC · full time 1-1 (HT 0-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.83	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.54	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.48	−2.4%
Betfair (net)	2.48	−2.3%
bet365	2.30	−9.4%

€269 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.83	2.54	2.48	2.30
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.62	3.58	3.42	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.70	3.06	2.90	2.82
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.27	2.01	1.94	1.86
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.79	1.99	1.94	1.86
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.34	3.55	3.42	3.00
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.30	1.39	1.36	1.33
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.56	3.08	2.90	2.70
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.39	1.48	1.46	1.37
Both teams to score · No	1.99	2.27	2.20	1.96
Both teams to score · Yes	2.01	1.79	1.73	1.71

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.