Queens Park Rangers – Derby County

Championship, England · 2026-10-14 · kickoff 18:45 UTC

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	—	ref
Pinnacle fair	4.62	ruler
Pinnacle offered	4.38	−5.3%
Betfair (net)	4.52	−2.3%
bet365	4.20	−9.1%

€11 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	—	4.62	4.51	4.20
Full time 1X2 · Draw	—	4.03	3.71	3.60
Full time 1X2 · Home	—	1.87	1.83	1.76
Over/under 2.5 · Over	—	1.95	1.85	1.81
Over/under 2.5 · Under	—	2.05	2.04	1.96
Over/under 3.5 · Over	—	3.55	3.21	3.40
Over/under 3.5 · Under	—	1.39	1.39	1.30
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	—	3.05	2.79	2.57
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	—	1.49	1.48	1.41
Both teams to score · No	—	2.18	2.10	1.96
Both teams to score · Yes	—	1.85	1.79	1.71

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.