Portsmouth – Sheffield Utd

Championship, England · 2026-10-14 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · full time 3-2 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.11	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.63	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.56	−2.8%
Betfair (net)	2.52	−4.3%
bet365	2.50	−5.1%

€211 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.48	2.93	2.86	2.75
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.63	3.58	3.38	3.20
Full time 1X2 · Home	3.11	2.63	2.52	2.50
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.11	2.09	2.02	1.96
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.90	1.91	1.85	1.81
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.90	3.91	3.71	3.40
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.34	1.34	1.32	1.30
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.01	3.22	2.90	2.70
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.50	1.45	1.46	1.37
Both teams to score · No	2.11	2.17	2.12	2.01
Both teams to score · Yes	1.90	1.85	1.77	1.66

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.