Norwich – Southampton

Championship, England · 2026-10-14 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · full time 0-1 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.99	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.40	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.34	−2.6%
Betfair (net)	2.31	−3.8%
bet365	2.25	−6.4%

€181 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.31	3.10	2.95	2.85
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.29	3.82	3.66	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.99	2.40	2.31	2.25
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.52	1.64	1.59	2.32
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.93	2.56	2.48	1.53
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.27	2.61	2.48	2.32
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.78	1.62	1.58	1.53
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.26	2.40	2.31	2.20
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.79	1.71	1.66	1.53
Both teams to score · No	3.01	2.90	2.69	2.45
Both teams to score · Yes	1.50	1.53	1.50	1.46

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.