Lincoln – West Ham

Championship, England · 2026-10-14 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · full time 0-6 (HT 0-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	4.73	ref
Pinnacle fair	5.25	ruler
Pinnacle offered	4.94	−5.9%
Betfair (net)	5.08	−3.1%
bet365	5.25	+0.0%

€273 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	1.82	1.74	1.70	1.62
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.20	4.24	3.94	3.70
Full time 1X2 · Home	4.73	5.25	5.08	5.25
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.83	1.96	1.88	1.83
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.20	2.04	2.01	1.93
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.10	3.54	3.38	3.20
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.48	1.39	1.37	1.33
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.77	2.94	2.75	2.57
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.57	1.51	1.49	1.41
Both teams to score · No	2.21	2.04	2.01	1.91
Both teams to score · Yes	1.82	1.96	1.84	1.76

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.