Wolves – Bolton

Championship, England · 2026-10-13 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · full time 1-3 (HT 0-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	7.49	ref
Pinnacle fair	9.54	ruler
Pinnacle offered	8.56	−10.3%
Betfair (net)	8.79	−7.9%
bet365	8.50	−10.9%

€87 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	7.49	9.54	8.79	8.50
Full time 1X2 · Draw	5.87	5.67	5.18	4.75
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.44	1.39	1.37	1.33
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.39	1.69	1.65	1.57
Over/under 2.5 · Under	3.55	2.46	2.35	2.25
Over/under 3.5 · Over	1.96	2.80	2.71	2.32
Over/under 3.5 · Under	2.04	1.55	1.51	1.53
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.04	2.59	2.39	2.32
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.96	1.63	1.63	1.49
Both teams to score · No	2.65	1.97	1.93	1.76
Both teams to score · Yes	1.61	2.03	1.95	1.91

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.