Millwall – Swansea

Championship, England · 2026-10-13 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · full time 0-1 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

Show

At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.31	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.49	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.42	−2.7%
Betfair (net)	2.35	−5.5%
bet365	2.30	−7.5%

€1258 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.58	3.23	3.14	2.85
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.47	3.47	3.33	3.40
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.31	2.49	2.35	2.30
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.39	2.17	2.08	1.96
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.72	1.85	1.83	1.76
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.73	4.16	3.80	3.75
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.27	1.32	1.31	1.25
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	4.02	3.35	3.04	3.00
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.33	1.43	1.42	1.33
Both teams to score · No	1.91	2.13	2.08	1.91
Both teams to score · Yes	2.10	1.89	1.80	1.76

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.