Cardiff – Watford

Championship, England · 2026-10-13 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · full time 5-1 (HT 4-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.56	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.68	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.65	−2.0%
Betfair (net)	1.67	−0.2%
bet365	1.57	−6.4%

€573 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.05	5.27	4.89	5.00
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.55	4.67	4.23	4.10
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.56	1.68	1.68	1.57
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.19	1.52	1.51	1.46
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.84	2.93	2.72	2.57
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.11	2.35	2.29	2.15
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.32	1.74	1.68	1.62
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.73	2.29	2.18	2.05
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.58	1.78	1.73	1.62
Both teams to score · No	2.06	2.76	2.52	2.32
Both teams to score · Yes	1.94	1.57	1.56	1.49

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.