Burnley – Charlton

Championship, England · 2026-10-13 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · full time 2-2 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.63	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.66	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.63	−1.9%
Betfair (net)	1.62	−2.4%
bet365	1.56	−5.9%

€139 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	7.52	6.22	5.94	5.50
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.96	4.25	4.04	3.75
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.63	1.66	1.62	1.56
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.56	1.98	1.93	1.86
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.64	2.02	1.94	1.91
Over/under 3.5 · Over	5.25	3.57	3.47	3.20
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.24	1.39	1.35	1.33
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.86	3.12	2.86	2.57
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.54	1.47	1.48	1.41
Both teams to score · No	1.60	1.98	1.93	1.76
Both teams to score · Yes	2.66	2.02	1.95	1.91

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.