Bristol City – Blackburn

Championship, England · 2026-10-13 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · full time 0-1 (HT 0-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.76	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.62	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.48	−3.8%
Betfair (net)	3.33	−8.0%
bet365	3.40	−6.0%

€985 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.76	3.62	3.33	3.40
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.45	3.36	3.28	3.10
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.25	2.35	2.29	2.25
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.46	2.34	2.22	2.15
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.68	1.75	1.72	1.62
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.94	4.51	4.16	3.40
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.25	1.28	1.27	1.30
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.69	3.60	3.19	3.25
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.37	1.39	1.40	1.30
Both teams to score · No	1.87	2.03	1.97	1.86
Both teams to score · Yes	2.15	1.97	1.88	1.86

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.