Birmingham – Preston

Championship, England · 2026-10-13 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · full time 4-0 (HT 3-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.98	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.51	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.48	−1.7%
Betfair (net)	1.48	−1.6%
bet365	1.45	−3.9%

€2223 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	4.42	7.16	7.08	6.00
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.72	5.06	4.61	4.33
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.98	1.51	1.48	1.45
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.22	1.77	1.72	1.62
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.82	2.29	2.20	2.15
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.20	3.04	2.90	2.70
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.31	1.49	1.47	1.41
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.74	2.77	2.50	2.45
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.57	1.56	1.57	1.46
Both teams to score · No	1.94	2.08	2.03	1.91
Both teams to score · Yes	2.06	1.93	1.85	1.76

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.