Southampton – Portsmouth

Championship, England · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · full time 1-0 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.50	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.56	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.53	−1.8%
Betfair (net)	1.52	−2.2%
bet365	1.50	−3.7%

€215 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	7.03	6.68	6.51	5.75
Full time 1X2 · Draw	5.24	4.80	4.42	4.10
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.50	1.56	1.52	1.50
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.55	1.67	1.65	1.53
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.83	2.50	2.37	2.32
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.34	2.75	2.63	2.32
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.74	1.57	1.53	1.53
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.29	2.55	2.35	2.25
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.78	1.64	1.63	1.54
Both teams to score · No	2.35	2.25	2.16	2.20
Both teams to score · Yes	1.74	1.80	1.74	1.58

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.