Hull – Everton

Premier League, England · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · full time 2-2 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	4.19	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.00	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.96	−1.9%
Betfair (net)	1.95	−2.4%
bet365	1.91	−4.4%

€2222 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	4.19	2.00	1.95	1.91
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.06	3.55	3.42	3.40
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.30	4.59	4.33	4.10
Over/under 2.5 · Over	3.14	2.15	2.10	1.96
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.47	1.87	1.81	1.76
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.59	3.31	3.04	3.00
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.39	1.43	1.41	1.33
Both teams to score · No	1.65	2.09	1.97	1.86
Both teams to score · Yes	2.54	1.91	1.91	1.86

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.