Coventry – Newcastle

Premier League, England · 2026-10-12 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · full time 4-1 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

Show

At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.77	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.07	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.03	−2.0%
Betfair (net)	2.03	−2.1%
bet365	2.02	−2.4%

€845 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	1.77	2.07	2.03	2.02
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.86	3.91	3.71	3.70
Full time 1X2 · Home	5.64	3.83	3.66	3.40
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.11	1.63	1.61	1.57
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.90	2.59	2.45	2.25
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.89	2.58	2.50	2.45
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.35	1.63	1.59	1.49
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.03	2.49	2.37	2.25
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.49	1.67	1.64	1.54
Both teams to score · No	1.93	2.83	2.60	2.37
Both teams to score · Yes	2.07	1.55	1.55	1.50

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.