J2 League 2026 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Mito	37	70	53.9	+16.1Outperforming ++	6	+6.4	+9.7	0:1 vs Tokushima (+1.9)	1:3 vs Iwata (-1.6)
2	Iwata	37	64	53.3	+10.7Outperforming ++	7	+5.4	+5.3	1:0 vs V-Varen Nagasaki (+2.0)	1:4 vs Blaublitz (-1.8)
3	Tokushima	37	65	56.0	+8.9Outperforming ++	4	+1.8	+7.2	0:2 vs Blaublitz (+1.8)	0:2 vs Fujieda MYFC (-1.8)
4	Chiba	37	69	60.9	+8.1Outperforming ++	1	+2.1	+6.0	0:1 vs Montedio Yamagata (+1.7)	1:0 vs Toyama (-1.8)
5	Sagan Tosu	37	55	50.4	+4.6Outperforming	11	+6.0	-1.3	1:0 vs Omiya Ardija (+2.1)	3:1 vs Toyama (-1.7)
6	V	19	39	34.8	+4.2Outperforming	19	+4.2	0.0	1:0 vs Varen Nagasaki-Chiba (+1.5)	0:2 vs Varen Nagasaki-Sagan Tosu (-1.8)
7	Omiya Ardija	37	62	58.0	+4.0Outperforming	2	+0.6	+3.4	1:2 vs Vegalta Sendai (+1.9)	1:0 vs Sagan Tosu (-1.8)
8	Vegalta Sendai	37	61	57.6	+3.4Outperforming	3	-1.0	+4.4	0:1 vs Iwata (+1.9)	0:1 vs Toyama (-1.9)
9	Iwaki	37	53	50.6	+2.4Outperforming	9	+0.3	+2.2	0:1 vs Vegalta Sendai (+2.0)	2:3 vs Kofu (-1.8)
10	Varen Nagasaki-Sagan Tosu	1	3	0.9	+2.1Outperforming	31	0.0	+2.1	0:2 vs V (+2.1)	0:2 vs V (2.1)
11	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	37	53	51.1	+1.9On expectation	8	+1.0	+1.0	1:2 vs Tokushima (+1.9)	0:1 vs Kofu (-1.7)
12	Varen Nagasaki-Iwaki	1	3	1.1	+1.9On expectation	26	0.0	+1.9	3:4 vs V (+1.9)	3:4 vs V (1.9)
13	Montedio Yamagata	37	52	50.4	+1.6On expectation	10	+0.7	+0.8	1:3 vs Kofu (+1.8)	2:3 vs Ehime (-1.9)
14	V-Varen Nagasaki	19	31	30.2	+0.8On expectation	21	0.0	+0.8	1:2 vs Oita Trinita (+1.6)	1:0 vs Iwata (-1.7)
15	Varen Nagasaki-Toyama	1	1	0.6	+0.4On expectation	40	0.0	+0.4	1:1 vs V (+0.4)	1:1 vs V (0.4)
16	Varen Nagasaki-Ehime	1	1	0.7	+0.3On expectation	38	0.0	+0.3	1:1 vs V (+0.3)	1:1 vs V (0.3)
17	Varen Nagasaki-Imabari	1	1	0.8	+0.1On expectation	32	0.0	+0.1	1:1 vs V (+0.2)	1:1 vs V (0.2)
18	Varen Nagasaki-Montedio Yamagata	1	1	0.9	+0.1On expectation	30	0.0	+0.1	1:1 vs V (+0.1)	1:1 vs V (0.1)
19	Varen Nagasaki-Vegalta Sendai	1	1	1.1	-0.1On expectation	27	0.0	-0.1	0:0 vs V (+-0.1)	0:0 vs V (-0.1)
20	Varen Nagasaki-Omiya Ardija	1	1	1.1	-0.1On expectation	24	0.0	-0.1	3:3 vs V (+-0.1)	3:3 vs V (-0.1)
21	Varen Nagasaki-Kofu	1	0	0.7	-0.7On expectation	39	0.0	-0.7	4:0 vs V (+-0.7)	4:0 vs V (-0.7)
22	Varen Nagasaki-Renofa Yamaguchi	1	0	0.7	-0.7On expectation	37	0.0	-0.7	1:0 vs V (+-0.7)	1:0 vs V (-0.7)
23	Varen Nagasaki-Fujieda MYFC	1	0	0.8	-0.8On expectation	35	0.0	-0.8	2:1 vs V (+-0.8)	2:1 vs V (-0.8)
24	Varen Nagasaki-Oita Trinita	1	0	0.8	-0.8On expectation	36	0.0	-0.8	1:0 vs V (+-0.8)	1:0 vs V (-0.8)
25	Varen Nagasaki-Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	1	0	0.8	-0.8On expectation	34	0.0	-0.8	2:1 vs V (+-0.8)	2:1 vs V (-0.8)
26	Varen Nagasaki-Blaublitz	1	0	0.8	-0.8On expectation	33	0.0	-0.8	5:1 vs V (+-0.9)	5:1 vs V (-0.9)
27	Varen Nagasaki-Kumamoto	1	0	1.0	-1.0On expectation	29	0.0	-1.0	3:2 vs V (+-1.0)	3:2 vs V (-1.0)
28	Varen Nagasaki-Mito	1	0	1.0	-1.0On expectation	28	0.0	-1.0	2:1 vs V (+-1.0)	2:1 vs V (-1.0)
29	Varen Nagasaki-Tokushima	1	0	1.1	-1.1On expectation	25	0.0	-1.1	1:0 vs V (+-1.1)	1:0 vs V (-1.1)
30	Varen Nagasaki-Iwata	1	0	1.2	-1.2On expectation	23	0.0	-1.2	1:0 vs V (+-1.2)	1:0 vs V (-1.2)
31	Varen Nagasaki-Chiba	1	0	1.3	-1.3On expectation	22	0.0	-1.3	1:0 vs V (+-1.3)	1:0 vs V (-1.3)
32	Kofu	37	44	46.1	-2.1Underperforming	14	-5.6	+3.5	2:3 vs Iwaki (+2.1)	1:2 vs Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (-1.6)
33	Blaublitz	37	43	45.6	-2.6Underperforming	16	-3.8	+1.2	1:4 vs Iwata (+2.1)	2:1 vs Fujieda MYFC (-1.5)
34	Imabari	37	52	55.3	-3.3Underperforming	5	-8.8	+5.5	1:4 vs Sagan Tosu (+1.8)	1:0 vs Kofu (-1.6)
35	Fujieda MYFC	37	39	43.9	-4.9Underperforming	17	-0.6	-4.3	0:2 vs Tokushima (+2.0)	0:1 vs Toyama (-1.7)
36	Toyama	37	36	41.9	-5.9Underperforming −−	18	-4.4	-1.5	0:1 vs Vegalta Sendai (+2.2)	1:2 vs Iwaki (-1.5)
37	Oita Trinita	37	38	45.9	-7.9Underperforming −−	15	-2.6	-5.3	0:1 vs Kumamoto (+1.8)	0:3 vs Ehime (-1.8)
38	Renofa Yamaguchi	37	36	46.9	-10.9Underperforming −−	13	-2.9	-8.0	2:1 vs Chiba (+1.9)	2:0 vs Ehime (-1.7)
39	Kumamoto	37	37	48.5	-11.5Underperforming −−	12	-4.3	-7.3	2:0 vs Iwata (+2.0)	1:2 vs Blaublitz (-1.7)
40	Ehime	37	21	34.0	-13.0Underperforming −−	20	-11.8	-1.2	2:3 vs Montedio Yamagata (+2.1)	2:4 vs Fujieda MYFC (-1.3)