Paide vs Nomme Utd
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-08-23 · 16:00 CET
LWLWW
LLWLLThe score model made a Paide win the most likely outcome at 75%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 72%). It finished 4:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Paide 2.73 – 0.97 Nomme Utd.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paide win | 75.1% | 59.3% | +15.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 13.4% | 21.5% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| Nomme Utd win | 11.6% | 19.3% | -7.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.5% | 67.2% | +4.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50.7% | 47.8% | +2.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.4% | 63.4% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 55.4% | 46.3% | +9.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Paide 48.2 / Nomme Utd 27.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.