Paide vs Nomme Utd
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-08-23 · 16:00 CET
DWLWD
WWLLLThe score model makes a Paide win the most likely outcome at 75%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 71%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Paide win — 74.5% vs 57.4% implied (+17.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Paide 2.71 – 0.97 Nomme Utd.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paide win | 74.5% | 57.4% | +17.2% |
| Draw | 13.9% | 21.6% | -7.8% |
| Nomme Utd win | 11.6% | 21.0% | -9.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.1% | 68.6% | +2.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50.1% | 48.6% | +1.5% |
| Both teams to score | 57.4% | 65.1% | -7.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 55.1% | 46.7% | +8.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Paide 48.5 / Nomme Utd 27.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.