Worthing vs Harrogate
National League, England · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
WWDLD
WWLDWThe score model makes a Worthing win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Worthing win — 42.9% vs 33.5% implied (+9.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Worthing 1.78 – 1.58 Harrogate.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Worthing win | 42.9% | 33.5% | +9.4% |
| Draw | 22.7% | 25.6% | -2.9% |
| Harrogate win | 34.5% | 40.9% | -6.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.3% | 60.3% | +5.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.3% | 39.5% | +3.8% |
| Both teams to score | 66.0% | 63.0% | +3.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.6% | 41.4% | +4.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Worthing 15.4 / Harrogate 15.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Worthing vs Harrogate in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.