Bahia vs Internacional
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-09-01 · 00:30 CET
WWWWL
DLLWLThe score model made a Bahia win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 3:2 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bahia 1.56 – 0.98 Internacional.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia win | 50.4% | 49.3% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.3% | 26.6% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Internacional win | 23.3% | 24.1% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.6% | 51.2% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.1% | 30.4% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | 54.2% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.8% | 35.5% | +1.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bahia 52.8 / Internacional 53.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.