Atletico-MG vs Vitoria
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-29 · 23:30 CET
WLWDW
LLWDLThe score model made an Atletico-MG win the most likely outcome at 55%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Atletico-MG 1.54 – 0.77 Vitoria.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG win | 55.3% | 52.7% | +2.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.6% | 27.1% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Vitoria win | 18.1% | 20.2% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.7% | 45.9% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.3% | 25.7% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.6% | 48.9% | -6.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.2% | 31.3% | -3.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Atletico-MG 52.1 / Vitoria 47.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.