Botafogo RJ vs Athletico-PR
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-26 · 01:00 CET
LDDWL
WDLDWThe score model made a Botafogo RJ win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 2:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Botafogo RJ 1.48 – 1.02 Athletico-PR.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo RJ win | 47.3% | 38.9% | +8.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.1% | 28.9% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Athletico-PR win | 25.6% | 32.2% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.8% | 49.3% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.4% | 28.9% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 54.5% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.6% | 33.7% | +1.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Botafogo RJ 52.6 / Athletico-PR 34.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.