Botafogo RJ vs Athletico-PR
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-26 · 01:00 CET
WDWDL
WWDWDThe score model makes a Botafogo RJ win the most likely outcome at 48%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Botafogo RJ win — 48.2% vs 41.8% implied (+6.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Botafogo RJ 1.45 – 0.95 Athletico-PR.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo RJ win | 48.2% | 41.8% | +6.4% |
| Draw | 27.6% | 30.4% | -2.7% |
| Athletico-PR win | 24.2% | 27.8% | -3.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.0% | 46.3% | -3.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.1% | 26.5% | -4.4% |
| Both teams to score | 47.4% | 52.5% | -5.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.1% | 31.7% | +2.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Botafogo RJ 52.2 / Athletico-PR 34 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.