Internacional vs Atletico-MG
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-22 · 23:30 CET
DLLWL
WLWDWThe score model made an Internacional win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Internacional 1.29 – 1.04 Atletico-MG.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional win | 41.5% | 46.7% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.0% | 29.1% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Atletico-MG win | 29.5% | 24.3% | +5.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.1% | 46.2% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.6% | 26.3% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.3% | 51.7% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.8% | 31.9% | -5.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Internacional 52.5 / Atletico-MG 51.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.