Fluminense vs Remo
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-22 · 21:00 CET
WDWLW
LLLLLThe score model made a Fluminense win the most likely outcome at 60%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fluminense 1.83 – 0.87 Remo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense win | 59.7% | 64.0% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.4% | 22.6% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Remo win | 17.0% | 13.4% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | 48.5% | +2.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.6% | 27.8% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | 44.9% | +4.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.6% | 32.9% | +5.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fluminense 52.7 / Remo 18.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.