Fluminense vs Remo
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-22 · 21:00 CET
DDDDW
LWLDDThe score model makes a Fluminense win the most likely outcome at 60%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Remo win — 16.9% vs 12.8% implied (+4.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fluminense 1.84 – 0.87 Remo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense win | 59.8% | 65.9% | -6.1% |
| Draw | 23.3% | 21.3% | +2.0% |
| Remo win | 16.9% | 12.8% | +4.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 52.5% | -1.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 31.6% | -2.8% |
| Both teams to score | 49.3% | 47.2% | +2.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.6% | 35.9% | +2.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fluminense 53 / Remo 18.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.