Chapecoense-SC vs Bahia
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-16 · 16:00 CET
WLWLD
WWWWLThe score model made a Bahia win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 3:3 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chapecoense-SC 1.13 – 1.62 Bahia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-SC win | 26.1% | 26.5% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.6% | 27.6% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| Bahia win | 48.3% | 45.9% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.0% | 50.1% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.8% | 29.2% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | 54.3% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.6% | 34.1% | -2.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chapecoense-SC 17.1 / Bahia 51.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.