Chapecoense-SC vs Bahia
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-16 · 16:00 CET
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WDDDDThe score model makes an Bahia win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Bahia win — 48.4% vs 44.9% implied (+3.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chapecoense-SC 1.13 – 1.62 Bahia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-SC win | 26.2% | 27.6% | -1.4% |
| Draw | 25.4% | 27.5% | -2.1% |
| Bahia win | 48.4% | 44.9% | +3.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.0% | 50.8% | +1.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.9% | 30.2% | -0.3% |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | 54.9% | -0.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.5% | 34.6% | -3.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chapecoense-SC 17.1 / Bahia 51.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.