Atletico-MG vs Gremio
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-16 · 21:00 CET
DWLWD
WLLLDThe score model made an Atletico-MG win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 3:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Atletico-MG 1.51 – 0.99 Gremio.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG win | 48.9% | 51.8% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.9% | 26.8% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Gremio win | 24.2% | 21.4% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.7% | 47.9% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.3% | 27.4% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.5% | 50.8% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.4% | 32.5% | -2.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Atletico-MG 51.5 / Gremio 50.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.