Fluminense vs Palmeiras
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-15 · 21:30 CET
WDWLW
WDDWDThe score model made a Palmeiras win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 3:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fluminense 1.02 – 1.19 Palmeiras.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense win | 31.0% | 32.6% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.9% | 30.5% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Palmeiras win | 39.1% | 36.9% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.0% | 41.6% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.3% | 21.9% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.0% | 48.9% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.8% | 28.9% | -4.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fluminense 52.5 / Palmeiras 52.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.