Fluminense vs Palmeiras
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-15 · 21:30 CET
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WWLWDThe score model makes an Palmeiras win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 38%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 81.8% vs 77.1% implied (+4.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fluminense 1.02 – 1.19 Palmeiras.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense win | 31.0% | 33.9% | -2.9% |
| Draw | 29.8% | 30.4% | -0.5% |
| Palmeiras win | 39.2% | 35.7% | +3.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.0% | 42.5% | -4.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.3% | 22.9% | -4.6% |
| Both teams to score | 45.0% | 49.3% | -4.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.8% | 29.3% | -4.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fluminense 52.8 / Palmeiras 52.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.