Athletico-PR vs Bragantino
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-15 · 23:30 CET
WDLDW
WLLDLThe score model made an Athletico-PR win the most likely outcome at 52%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Athletico-PR 1.47 – 0.82 Bragantino.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletico-PR win | 52.3% | 46.4% | +5.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.3% | 29.3% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Bragantino win | 20.4% | 24.3% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.2% | 43.1% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.9% | 23.2% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.4% | 48.7% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.1% | 30.0% | +3.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Athletico-PR 33.4 / Bragantino 51.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.