MLS title race 2026: who will win the league?
USA · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 20 Oct 2026
The MLS title race is settled in the simulations: no club's chance is between 1% and 99%.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
No club is between 1% and 99% in the simulations.
Above 99%: Nashville SC. Below 1%: Vancouver Whitecaps, Inter Miami, FC Dallas, St. Louis City, New England Revolution, Chicago Fire, San Jose Earthquakes, Charlotte, Houston Dynamo, Philadelphia Union, Los Angeles FC, Seattle Sounders, Orlando City, Colorado Rapids, Los Angeles Galaxy, FC Cincinnati, Real Salt Lake, Columbus Crew, New York City, Toronto FC, New York Red Bulls, Minnesota United, San Diego FC, Portland Timbers, DC United, Austin FC, Atlanta Utd, CF Montreal, Sporting Kansas City.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 60 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).