MLS predicted table 2026
USA · The rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 20 October 2026
- Nashville SC are the most likely MLS champions, finishing first in >99% of 10,000 simulations (projected 75 points; Vancouver Whitecaps next on <1%).
- Sporting Kansas City (>99%), CF Montreal (>99%) are more likely than not to finish in the bottom 3 places.
- Toronto FC sit 18th today but are projected to finish 21st — the model expects them to drop below their current position.
| # | Team | P | Pts now | Proj. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 30 | 67 | 7571–77 | >99% | >99% | 0% | 1st (>99%) |
| 2 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 55 | 6359–65 | <1% | 96% | 0% | 2nd (55%) |
| 3 | Inter Miami | 30 | 55 | 6259–65 | 0% | 94% | 0% | 3rd (44%) |
| 4 | FC Dallas | 30 | 51 | 5854–61 | 0% | 41% | 0% | 4th (29%) |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 30 | 51 | 5754–60 | 0% | 33% | 0% | 4th (25%) |
| 6 | New England Revolution | 30 | 52 | 5753–60 | 0% | 22% | 0% | 5th (20%) |
| 7 | Chicago Fire | 30 | 48 | 5451–58 | 0% | 5% | 0% | 7th (15%) |
| 8 | San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | 48 | 5350–57 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 9th (14%) |
| 9 | Charlotte | 30 | 47 | 5350–56 | 0% | 2% | 0% | 9th (15%) |
| 10 | Houston Dynamo | 30 | 47 | 5249–56 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 12th (19%) |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union | 30 | 46 | 5249–56 | 0% | 2% | 0% | 11th (15%) |
| 12 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | 46 | 5149–55 | 0% | <1% | 0% | 12th (19%) |
| 13 | Seattle Sounders | 30 | 42 | 4744–51 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13th (32%) |
| 14 | Orlando City | 30 | 41 | 4643–50 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14th (24%) |
| 15 | Colorado Rapids | 30 | 39 | 4440–47 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15th (14%) |
| 16 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 31 | 40 | 4341–46 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16th (14%) |
| 17 | FC Cincinnati | 29 | 36 | 4339–46 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 15th (12%) |
| 18 | Real Salt Lake | 30 | 36 | 4238–45 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 18th (10%) |
| 19 | Columbus Crew | 30 | 35 | 4138–45 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 18th (10%) |
| 20 | New York City | 30 | 34 | 4137–44 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 19th (10%) |
| 21 | Toronto FC | 30 | 36 | 4137–43 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 23rd (11%) |
| 22 | New York Red Bulls | 30 | 36 | 4037–43 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 24th (12%) |
| 23 | Minnesota United | 30 | 34 | 4037–43 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 25th (12%) |
| 24 | San Diego FC | 30 | 34 | 4037–43 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 24th (11%) |
| 25 | Portland Timbers | 30 | 34 | 3936–43 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 25th (13%) |
| 26 | DC United | 29 | 33 | 3834–42 | 0% | 0% | 13% | 27th (19%) |
| 27 | Austin FC | 30 | 31 | 3633–40 | 0% | 0% | 29% | 28th (28%) |
| 28 | Atlanta Utd | 30 | 30 | 3531–38 | 0% | 0% | 48% | 28th (46%) |
| 29 | CF Montreal | 30 | 25 | 2825–31 | 0% | 0% | >99% | 29th (78%) |
| 30 | Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 22 | 2623–29 | 0% | 0% | >99% | 30th (81%) |
Order = average final points across all simulations. Proj. pts shows the average and the 10th–90th percentile range. Percentages are the share of simulations in which the club finishes in that zone.
How this table is made
Every club gets an attack and a defence rating from a Dixon-Coles model fitted to the league's results (recent matches weigh more). Each of the 60 remaining scheduled fixtures is then played out 10,000 times by sampling a scoreline from the model, and the final table of each run is recorded. Ties are separated by goal difference, then goals scored; head-to-head rules, point deductions and split rounds are not modelled. This is a statistical projection, not a tip.
How good are the model's probabilities? Its match forecasts are scored publicly, every match, on the calibration record.
Use this table
Free to republish with credit and a link to this page (CC BY 4.0). Journalists: contact@football-charts.com for a club-specific version.
