Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctThe season in numbers
Away wins paid out more than the market charged: +25.8% at market prices across 24 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Chonburi produced performances worth 4 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 25.8' on average.
Add Thai League 1 fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining Thai League 1 schedule 10,000 times a day. Buriram win the 2026-2027 title in 82% of them, projecting ~66 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Sukhothai finish in the bottom three in 46% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Buriram's title chance down 1 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Buriram | 7 | 66 | 59–74 | ▼82% | >99% | — |
| 2 |  Port MTI FC | 6 | 55 | 47–63 | 9% | 85% | — |
| 3 |  Bangkok Utd | 6 | 53 | 45–61 | 5% | 75% | <1% |
| 4 |  Ratchaburi | 4 | 50 | 42–58 | 2% | 59% | <1% |
| 5 |  Pathum United | 4 | 48 | 39–56 | <1% | 39% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 14 |  Chonburi | 0 | 32 | 24–39 | — | <1% | 43% |
| 15 |  Sukhothai | 3 | 31 | 24–39 | — | <1% | 46% |
| 16 | Rasisalai Utd | 1 | 31 | 23–39 | — | <1% | 45% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 216 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Thai League 1 match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buriram | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 | |
| 2 |  Rayong FC | 7 | 3.3 | +3.7 | |
| 3 |  Uthai Thani | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | |
| 4 |  Prachuap | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | |
| 5 | Bangkok Utd | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 14 | Rasisalai Utd | 1 | 2.4 | -1.4 | |
| 15 |  Lamphun Warrior | 1 | 3.5 | -2.5 | |
| 16 | Chonburi | 0 | 3.9 | -3.9 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+