Thai League 1 title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Thailand · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 24 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Buriram (80%), Port MTI FC (12%), Ratchaburi (5%). 66 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buriram | 5 | 13 | 6760–74 | 80% | 53 from 25 (2.12/game) |
| Port MTI FC | 5 | 12 | 5851–66 | 12% | 54 from 25 (2.16/game) |
| Ratchaburi | 5 | 10 | 5547–62 | 5% | 56 from 25 (2.24/game) |
| Bangkok Utd | 5 | 9 | 5345–61 | 3% | 57 from 25 (2.28/game) |
Below 1%: Prachuap, Pathum United, Uthai Thani, Rayong FC, Sisaket United, Chiangrai Utd, Lamphun Warrior, Ayutthaya Utd, Pattani, Sukhothai, Chonburi, Rasisalai Utd.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 200 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).