Segunda RFEF - Group 4 title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Spain · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 18 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Betis B (42%), Recreativo Huelva (24%), Ciudad de Lucena (17%). 67 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betis B | 6 | 14 | 6355–71 | 42% | 53 from 28 (1.89/game) |
| Recreativo Huelva | 6 | 13 | 6052–69 | 24% | 54 from 28 (1.93/game) |
| Ciudad de Lucena | 6 | 11 | 5950–67 | 17% | 56 from 28 (2.00/game) |
| Tenerife B | 6 | 10 | 5446–63 | 6% | 57 from 28 (2.04/game) |
| CD Badajoz | 6 | 11 | 5345–62 | 4% | 56 from 28 (2.00/game) |
| Mijas Las Lagunas | 6 | 9 | 5041–58 | 2% | 58 from 28 (2.07/game) |
| Sevilla FC B | 6 | 8 | 5041–58 | 2% | 59 from 28 (2.11/game) |
| CD Estepona | 6 | 10 | 5041–58 | 2% | 57 from 28 (2.04/game) |
Below 1%: Xerez CD, Linares, Sanluqueno, Don Benito, Atletico Central, Marbella, Puente Genil, Antoniano, Las Palmas B, Tamaraceite.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 252 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).