Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctThe season in numbers
Over 2.5 goals paid out more than the market charged: +3.7% at market prices across 72 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Antoniano produced performances worth 7 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 32.1' on average.
Add Segunda RFEF - Group 4 fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining Segunda RFEF - Group 4 schedule 10,000 times a day. Recreativo Huelva win the 2026-2027 title in 38% of them, projecting ~63 points; Ciudad de Lucena are next at 30%. At the other end, Las Palmas B finish in the bottom three in 96% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Ciudad de Lucena's title chance down 2 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Recreativo Huelva | 17 | 63 | 55–71 | ▲38% | 87% | — |
| 2 | Ciudad de Lucena | 15 | 62 | 54–70 | ▼30% | 84% | — |
| 3 | Betis B | 15 | 59 | 51–67 | 16% | 68% | <1% |
| 4 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 13 | 56 | 48–64 | 8% | 52% | <1% |
| 5 | CD Badajoz | 15 | 54 | 46–62 | 4% | 34% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 16 |  Antoniano | 3 | 36 | 28–44 | — | <1% | 45% |
| 17 | Tamaraceite | 6 | 32 | 25–40 | — | — | 69% |
| 18 | Las Palmas B | 5 | 25 | 18–32 | — | — | 96% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 234 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/spain/segunda-rfef-group-4/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Segunda RFEF - Group 4 live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/spain/segunda-rfef-group-4">Segunda RFEF - Group 4 stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Segunda RFEF - Group 4 match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recreativo Huelva | 17 | 14.3 | +2.7 | |
| 2 | Betis B | 15 | 13.3 | +1.7 | |
| 3 | Ciudad de Lucena | 15 | 9.5 | +5.5 | |
| 4 | CD Badajoz | 15 | 11.4 | +3.6 | |
| 5 | Don Benito | 14 | 10.6 | +3.4 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 | Tamaraceite | 6 | 8.1 | -2.1 | |
| 17 | Las Palmas B | 5 | 9.6 | -4.6 | |
| 18 | Antoniano | 3 | 10.1 | -7.1 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisRecreativo Huelva17 ptsBetis B15 ptsCiudad de Lucena15 ptsCD Badajoz15 ptsDon Benito14 ptsMijas Las Lagunas13 ptsSevilla FC B12 pts
CD Estepona12 pts
Linares12 pts
Puente Genil11 ptsSanluqueno10 ptsTenerife B10 pts
Xerez CD9 ptsAtletico Central9 ptsMarbella6 ptsTamaraceite6 ptsLas Palmas B5 ptsAntoniano3 ptsGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+