Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025-2026 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Deportiva Minera	35	66	52.3	+13.7Outperforming ++	6	+12.6	+1.2	0:1 vs Aguilas FC (+2.0)	0:2 vs Aguilas FC (-1.5)
2	Jaen	35	61	48.4	+12.6Outperforming ++	9	+9.6	+2.0	1:2 vs UCAM Murcia (+2.0)	2:1 vs Malaga B (-1.9)
3	CD Extremadura	35	66	53.4	+12.6Outperforming ++	3	+14.5	-1.9	1:2 vs Aguilas FC (+1.9)	2:4 vs Almeria B (-2.1)
4	Aguilas FC	35	64	53.1	+10.9Outperforming ++	4	+3.6	+4.4	0:1 vs Melilla (+1.9)	1:0 vs Antoniano (-1.7)
5	Xerez CD	35	62	52.6	+9.4Outperforming ++	5	+8.6	+0.8	1:2 vs Recreativo Huelva (+1.9)	0:1 vs Puente Genil (-2.0)
6	Lorca Deportiva	35	48	42.4	+5.6Outperforming ++	14	+6.0	-1.4	1:3 vs Linares (+2.0)	0:1 vs Aguilas FC (-1.4)
7	Antoniano	35	47	42.0	+5.0Outperforming ++	15	+13.4	-8.3	1:0 vs Aguilas FC (+2.0)	3:2 vs Malaga B (-1.6)
8	Linares	35	48	44.8	+3.2Outperforming	12	-1.6	+4.8	0:1 vs Jaen (+1.9)	1:3 vs Lorca Deportiva (-1.8)
9	Recreativo Huelva	35	60	58.5	+1.5On expectation	1	+6.6	-5.1	0:1 vs La Union (+1.7)	1:2 vs Puente Genil (-2.1)
10	Puente Genil	35	41	41.1	-0.1On expectation	16	+6.4	-6.5	1:2 vs Recreativo Huelva (+2.3)	2:1 vs Almeria B (-1.5)
11	CD Estepona	35	47	48.1	-1.1On expectation	10	-8.2	+7.1	0:3 vs La Union (+2.2)	0:2 vs Yeclano (-1.7)
12	Yeclano	35	47	48.5	-1.5On expectation	8	+2.7	-4.2	0:2 vs CD Estepona (+2.0)	1:0 vs Almeria B (-1.6)
13	La Union	35	48	49.5	-1.5On expectation	7	-1.0	-0.5	1:2 vs UCAM Murcia (+2.0)	0:3 vs CD Estepona (-1.9)
14	UCAM Murcia	35	55	56.8	-1.8On expectation	2	+5.4	-7.2	1:2 vs Aguilas FC (+1.9)	1:2 vs Jaen (-1.7)
15	Xerez D.F.C.	35	37	44.0	-7.0Underperforming −−	13	-2.2	-4.8	1:2 vs Linares (+1.8)	2:1 vs Malaga B (-1.7)
16	Almeria B	35	24	33.2	-9.2Underperforming −−	18	-7.3	-1.9	2:4 vs CD Extremadura (+2.3)	0:1 vs Linares (-1.3)
17	Melilla	35	37	46.7	-9.7Underperforming −−	11	+2.2	-11.9	2:0 vs UCAM Murcia (+1.6)	0:1 vs Jaen (-1.6)
18	Malaga B	34	21	33.4	-12.4Underperforming −−	17	-1.4	-11.0	2:1 vs Jaen (+2.2)	0:1 vs Almeria B (-1.7)
19	Malagueno	17	6	19.2	-13.2Underperforming −−	19	-6.4	-6.9	1:0 vs UCAM Murcia (+2.0)	0:1 vs Almeria B (-1.7)

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Deportiva Minera	35	66	52.3	+13.7Outperforming ++	6	+12.6	+1.2	0:1 vs Aguilas FC (+2.0)	0:2 vs Aguilas FC (-1.5)
2	Jaen	35	61	48.4	+12.6Outperforming ++	9	+9.6	+2.0	1:2 vs UCAM Murcia (+2.0)	2:1 vs Malaga B (-1.9)
3	CD Extremadura	35	66	53.4	+12.6Outperforming ++	3	+14.5	-1.9	1:2 vs Aguilas FC (+1.9)	2:4 vs Almeria B (-2.1)
4	Aguilas FC	35	64	53.1	+10.9Outperforming ++	4	+3.6	+4.4	0:1 vs Melilla (+1.9)	1:0 vs Antoniano (-1.7)
5	Xerez CD	35	62	52.6	+9.4Outperforming ++	5	+8.6	+0.8	1:2 vs Recreativo Huelva (+1.9)	0:1 vs Puente Genil (-2.0)
6	Lorca Deportiva	35	48	42.4	+5.6Outperforming ++	14	+6.0	-1.4	1:3 vs Linares (+2.0)	0:1 vs Aguilas FC (-1.4)
7	Antoniano	35	47	42.0	+5.0Outperforming ++	15	+13.4	-8.3	1:0 vs Aguilas FC (+2.0)	3:2 vs Malaga B (-1.6)
8	Linares	35	48	44.8	+3.2Outperforming	12	-1.6	+4.8	0:1 vs Jaen (+1.9)	1:3 vs Lorca Deportiva (-1.8)
9	Recreativo Huelva	35	60	58.5	+1.5On expectation	1	+6.6	-5.1	0:1 vs La Union (+1.7)	1:2 vs Puente Genil (-2.1)
10	Puente Genil	35	41	41.1	-0.1On expectation	16	+6.4	-6.5	1:2 vs Recreativo Huelva (+2.3)	2:1 vs Almeria B (-1.5)
11	CD Estepona	35	47	48.1	-1.1On expectation	10	-8.2	+7.1	0:3 vs La Union (+2.2)	0:2 vs Yeclano (-1.7)
12	Yeclano	35	47	48.5	-1.5On expectation	8	+2.7	-4.2	0:2 vs CD Estepona (+2.0)	1:0 vs Almeria B (-1.6)
13	La Union	35	48	49.5	-1.5On expectation	7	-1.0	-0.5	1:2 vs UCAM Murcia (+2.0)	0:3 vs CD Estepona (-1.9)
14	UCAM Murcia	35	55	56.8	-1.8On expectation	2	+5.4	-7.2	1:2 vs Aguilas FC (+1.9)	1:2 vs Jaen (-1.7)
15	Xerez D.F.C.	35	37	44.0	-7.0Underperforming −−	13	-2.2	-4.8	1:2 vs Linares (+1.8)	2:1 vs Malaga B (-1.7)
16	Almeria B	35	24	33.2	-9.2Underperforming −−	18	-7.3	-1.9	2:4 vs CD Extremadura (+2.3)	0:1 vs Linares (-1.3)
17	Melilla	35	37	46.7	-9.7Underperforming −−	11	+2.2	-11.9	2:0 vs UCAM Murcia (+1.6)	0:1 vs Jaen (-1.6)
18	Malaga B	34	21	33.4	-12.4Underperforming −−	17	-1.4	-11.0	2:1 vs Jaen (+2.2)	0:1 vs Almeria B (-1.7)
19	Malagueno	17	6	19.2	-13.2Underperforming −−	19	-6.4	-6.9	1:0 vs UCAM Murcia (+2.0)	0:1 vs Almeria B (-1.7)