Primera RFEF - Group 2 title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Spain · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 16 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Zaragoza (53%), Villarreal B (23%), Jaen (6%). 75 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaragoza | 7 | 16 | 7263–81 | 53% | 59 from 31 (1.90/game) |
| Villarreal B | 7 | 14 | 6758–76 | 23% | 61 from 31 (1.97/game) |
| Jaen | 7 | 12 | 6252–70 | 6% | 63 from 31 (2.03/game) |
| Murcia | 7 | 15 | 6152–70 | 5% | 60 from 31 (1.94/game) |
| Alcorcon | 7 | 12 | 5849–67 | 3% | 63 from 31 (2.03/game) |
| Atl. Madrid B | 7 | 9 | 5849–67 | 3% | 66 from 31 (2.13/game) |
| UD Ibiza | 7 | 10 | 5849–67 | 2% | 65 from 31 (2.10/game) |
| Real Madrid B | 7 | 9 | 5647–65 | 1% | 66 from 31 (2.13/game) |
Below 1%: FC Cartagena SAD, Antequera, Hercules, Huesca, CE Europa, Sant Andreu, Algeciras, Gimnastic, Rayo Majadahonda, Teruel, Torremolinos, Aguilas FC.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and the points it takes from its remaining games.
Loading the scenario…
How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 310 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).