2. liga title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Slovakia · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 20 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Petrzalka (79%), Samorin (11%), Presov (3%). 60 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petrzalka | 13 | 30 | 6154–68 | 79% | 30 from 17 (1.76/game) |
| Samorin | 13 | 29 | 5346–60 | 11% | 31 from 17 (1.82/game) |
| Presov | 13 | 19 | 4942–56 | 3% | 41 from 17 (2.41/game) |
| I. Bratislava | 13 | 20 | 4842–55 | 3% | 40 from 17 (2.35/game) |
| Pohronie | 13 | 23 | 4841–55 | 2% | 37 from 17 (2.18/game) |
| L. Mikulas | 13 | 19 | 4640–53 | 1% | 41 from 17 (2.41/game) |
| Povazska Bystrica | 13 | 23 | 4639–53 | 1% | 37 from 17 (2.18/game) |
Below 1%: Galanta, Zilina B, Z. Moravce-Vrable, Slovan Bratislava B, Lehota p. V., Malzenice, Zvolen, FK Humenne, MFK Bytca.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 136 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).