ISL title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
India · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 18 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Mohun Bagan (28%), Churchill Brothers (19%), East Bengal (13%). 25 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohun Bagan | 2 | 3 | 2116–26 | 28% | 22 from 10 (2.20/game) |
| Churchill Brothers | 1 | 3 | 2015–26 | 19% | 22 from 11 (2.00/game) |
| East Bengal | 0 | 0 | 1913–24 | 13% | 25 from 12 (2.08/game) |
| Mumbai City | 1 | 0 | 1813–24 | 10% | 25 from 11 (2.27/game) |
| Goa | 1 | 1 | 1812–23 | 8% | 24 from 11 (2.18/game) |
| North East Utd | 1 | 3 | 1812–23 | 8% | 22 from 11 (2.00/game) |
| Punjab | 1 | 3 | 1712–22 | 5% | 22 from 11 (2.00/game) |
| Bengaluru FC | 1 | 3 | 1712–22 | 5% | 22 from 10 (2.20/game) |
| Kerala Blasters | 1 | 3 | 1611–22 | 4% | 22 from 11 (2.00/game) |
Below 1%: Odisha FC, Chennaiyin, SC Delhi, Inter Kashi.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 69 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).