Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 31 OctThe season in numbers
Draws paid out more than the market charged: +9.5% at market prices across 49 matches. 3 other markets also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Arsenal W produced performances worth 6 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 27.2' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Arsenal W – Aston Villa W2026-11-01 12:00BTTS: NoModel 55.2%Implied 48.3%▲ +6.9%- Brighton W – Crystal Palace W2026-11-01 14:00FT U3.5Model 57.4%Implied 51.8%▲ +5.5%
- Everton W – Manchester Utd W2026-10-31 12:45Away winModel 48.5%Implied 43.5%▲ +5.1%
- London City Lionesses W – Manchester City W2026-11-01 12:00FT O3.5Model 43.8%Implied 41.2%▲ +2.7%
- West Ham W – Liverpool W2026-11-01 14:00BTTS: NoModel 49.4%Implied 48.5%▲ +0.8%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal W– Aston Villa W | 2026-11-01 | 12:00 | BTTS: No | 55.2% | 48.3% | ▲ +6.9% | 2.07 |
| 2 |  Brighton W– Crystal Palace W | 2026-11-01 | 14:00 | FT U3.5 | 57.4% | 51.8% | ▲ +5.5% | 1.93 |
| 3 |  Everton W– Manchester Utd W | 2026-10-31 | 12:45 | Away win | 48.5% | 43.5% | ▲ +5.1% | 2.30 |
| 4 |  London City Lionesses W– Manchester City W | 2026-11-01 | 12:00 | FT O3.5 | 43.8% | 41.2% | ▲ +2.7% | 2.43 |
| 5 |  West Ham W– Liverpool W | 2026-11-01 | 14:00 | BTTS: No | 49.4% | 48.5% | ▲ +0.8% | 2.06 |
Add Women's Super League fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 31 OctWe simulate the remaining Women's Super League schedule 10,000 times a day. Chelsea W win the 2026-2027 title in 59% of them, projecting ~63 points; Manchester City W are next at 39%. At the other end, Charlton W finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea W | 19 | 63 | 57–68 | 59% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Manchester City W | 19 | 61 | 55–67 | 39% | >99% | — |
| 3 | Arsenal W | 9 | 51 | 45–57 | 1% | 90% | — |
| 4 | Manchester Utd W | 11 | 46 | 39–53 | <1% | 55% | <1% |
| 5 | London City Lionesses W | 16 | 45 | 38–52 | <1% | 47% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 12 | West Ham W | 6 | 25 | 19–31 | — | <1% | 49% |
| 13 | Crystal Palace W | 6 | 19 | 13–25 | — | — | 90% |
| 14 | Charlton W | 0 | 10 | 5–16 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 133 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Women's Super League match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea W | 19 | 16.3 | +2.7 | |
| 2 | Manchester City W | 19 | 15.8 | +3.2 | |
| 3 | London City Lionesses W | 16 | 13.7 | +2.3 | |
| 4 | Manchester Utd W | 11 | 9.3 | +1.7 | |
| 5 | Tottenham W | 10 | 10.4 | -0.4 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 12 | West Ham W | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | |
| 13 | Crystal Palace W | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 | |
| 14 | Charlton W | 0 | 3.6 | -3.6 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+