TOPLYGA 2020 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Kauno Zalgiris	20	38	29.7	+8.3Outperforming ++	3	+1.6	+6.7	2:3 vs Zalgiris (+2.3)	2:3 vs Banga (-2.0)
2	Zalgiris	20	45	41.8	+3.2Outperforming	1	-0.3	+3.5	4:0 vs Suduva (+1.5)	0:1 vs Riteriai (-2.4)
3	Suduva	20	43	40.6	+2.4Outperforming	2	+2.3	+0.1	2:0 vs Zalgiris (+1.7)	3:0 vs Kauno Zalgiris (-1.7)
4	Banga	20	16	16.4	-0.4On expectation	6	-2.3	+1.9	2:3 vs Kauno Zalgiris (+2.2)	2:1 vs FK Panevezys (-1.4)
5	FK Panevezys	20	12	17.2	-5.2Underperforming −−	5	-0.5	-4.7	2:1 vs Riteriai (+1.8)	2:0 vs Banga (-1.5)
6	Riteriai	20	12	21.2	-9.2Underperforming −−	4	-6.0	-3.2	0:1 vs Zalgiris (+2.5)	0:1 vs Banga (-1.9)

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Kauno Zalgiris	20	38	29.7	+8.3Outperforming ++	3	+1.6	+6.7	2:3 vs Zalgiris (+2.3)	2:3 vs Banga (-2.0)
2	Zalgiris	20	45	41.8	+3.2Outperforming	1	-0.3	+3.5	4:0 vs Suduva (+1.5)	0:1 vs Riteriai (-2.4)
3	Suduva	20	43	40.6	+2.4Outperforming	2	+2.3	+0.1	2:0 vs Zalgiris (+1.7)	3:0 vs Kauno Zalgiris (-1.7)
4	Banga	20	16	16.4	-0.4On expectation	6	-2.3	+1.9	2:3 vs Kauno Zalgiris (+2.2)	2:1 vs FK Panevezys (-1.4)
5	FK Panevezys	20	12	17.2	-5.2Underperforming −−	5	-0.5	-4.7	2:1 vs Riteriai (+1.8)	2:0 vs Banga (-1.5)
6	Riteriai	20	12	21.2	-9.2Underperforming −−	4	-6.0	-3.2	0:1 vs Zalgiris (+2.5)	0:1 vs Banga (-1.9)