Ostersund vs Varberg
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-10-10 · 15:00 CET
DWDWD
WDLWWThe score model makes a Varberg win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Varberg win — 38.2% vs 28.4% implied (+9.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ostersund 1.25 – 1.34 Varberg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ostersund win | 34.2% | 44.1% | -9.9% |
| Draw | 27.6% | 27.5% | +0.1% |
| Varberg win | 38.2% | 28.4% | +9.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.9% | 47.8% | +0.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.2% | 28.0% | -1.9% |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | 52.7% | +0.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.8% | 32.9% | -8.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ostersund 43.9 / Varberg 40.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.