Varberg vs Oddevold
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-30 · 15:00 CET
WDLWW
LWWDLThe score model made a Varberg win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 3:1 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Varberg 1.68 – 1.26 Oddevold.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varberg win | 46.9% | 39.9% | +7.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.8% | 28.4% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Oddevold win | 28.3% | 31.7% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | 48.5% | +7.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.8% | 27.9% | +6.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 58.6% | 54.2% | +4.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.5% | 33.5% | -4.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Varberg 38.1 / Oddevold 38.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.