Orebro vs Varberg
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-25 · 19:00 CET
DLWDL
WDLWWThe score model made a Varberg win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Orebro 1.27 – 1.60 Varberg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orebro win | 29.7% | 32.8% | -3.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.5% | 27.2% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Varberg win | 44.8% | 40.0% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.7% | 55.5% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.4% | 34.7% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | 59.3% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.9% | 37.6% | -6.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Orebro 41.7 / Varberg 37.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.