Orebro vs Varberg
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-25 · 19:00 CET
LDLLD
WLWLDThe score model makes an Varberg win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Varberg win — 45.0% vs 38.7% implied (+6.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Orebro 1.26 – 1.60 Varberg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orebro win | 29.8% | 33.3% | -3.5% |
| Draw | 25.2% | 28.0% | -2.8% |
| Varberg win | 45.0% | 38.7% | +6.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | 52.1% | +2.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.1% | 31.8% | +0.3% |
| Both teams to score | 57.4% | 57.4% | -0.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.1% | 36.2% | -5.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Orebro 42.1 / Varberg 37.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.