Nordic United vs Varberg
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-15 · 15:00 CET
DWDDD
WWLWLThe score model makes a Nordic United win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 71.5% vs 63.1% implied (+8.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nordic United 1.69 – 1.44 Varberg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nordic United win | 43.7% | 40.1% | +3.6% |
| Draw | 23.6% | 27.1% | -3.4% |
| Varberg win | 32.7% | 32.8% | -0.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.4% | 54.5% | +6.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.1% | 34.3% | +3.8% |
| Both teams to score | 62.2% | 59.1% | +3.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.5% | 36.9% | -8.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nordic United 15.7 / Varberg 37.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.