Cheonan City vs Gyeongnam
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-10-10 · 09:30 CET
DDDLW
DWWDLThe score model made a Gyeongnam win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cheonan City 1.26 – 1.30 Gyeongnam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheonan City win | 35.3% | 38.7% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.6% | 28.4% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Gyeongnam win | 37.1% | 32.8% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.3% | 47.1% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.7% | 26.7% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.8% | 52.8% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.7% | 32.2% | -1.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cheonan City 49.7 / Gyeongnam 47.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.