Suwon FC vs Hwaseong
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-10-09 · 07:00 CET
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LLDLWThe score model made a Suwon FC win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Suwon FC 1.69 – 1.07 Hwaseong.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suwon FC win | 51.4% | 45.5% | +5.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.2% | 26.2% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Hwaseong win | 23.4% | 28.3% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.0% | 56.1% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.9% | 34.9% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.1% | 58.9% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.0% | 38.3% | -2.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Suwon FC 20.9 / Hwaseong 38.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Suwon FC vs Hwaseong in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.