Hwaseong vs Cheongju
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-08-29 · 12:30 CET
WDDWD
DLLWWThe score model made a Hwaseong win the most likely outcome at 51%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hwaseong 1.43 – 0.81 Cheongju.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hwaseong win | 50.9% | 47.9% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.3% | 27.9% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Cheongju win | 20.8% | 24.1% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.4% | 34.7% | -7.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hwaseong 36.3 / Cheongju 48.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.